A mere 60 days prior that the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager scolded him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or the reason of the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. After Rogers swept in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their talisman to save the day with some crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the force he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
