A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
